Background

The transport sector in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) in Asia plays a pivotal role in economic development, yet it also contributes significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement provide a framework for countries to outline their climate actions, yet many LMICs in Asia face substantial challenges in achieving their transportation sector targets. A recent regional assessment from Asian Transport Outlook highlights that NDC’s document only 10% of transport mitigation and adaptation measures as documented in the transport policy documents. A need to gain a good understanding this gap will enable LMICs in Asia will have better vantage points to develop targeted policies and strategies to decarbonize their transport sector while pursuing growth and development. Such an analysis is being conducted by the Asian Transport Outlook (ATO), and a webinar aimed at sharing the initial insights from the research work was organized.

The webinar, entitled "Bridging the Gap: Deep Dive into NDCs and Transport Policy Landscapes in Low- and Middle-Income Asian Economies," was held on the 23rd of September 2024, with participation from experts in transport policy, climate change, and sustainable development. Over 75 participants joined the event. Speakers from the ATO, Asian Development Bank (ADB), the High Volume Transport (HVT) program, and the SLOCAT Partnership on Sustainable Low-Carbon Transport were featured. The discussion centered around aligning NDCs with transport policies to achieve decarbonization and sustainable development goals in Asia.

The research - and the webinar is being supported by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) through the HVT Program (under project no. HVT057 being carried out by SLOCAT) being administered by DT-Global.

A recording of the video is now uploaded through ATO’s YouTube channel. The final report, as well as the country profiles (for 24 LMICs) will be uploaded in the ATO website soon: LINK.

Introduction

The Asian transport sector is facing significant challenges in aligning its growth with climate goals. Alvin Mejia of the ATO introduced the webinar to discuss the current state of transport-related emissions, the role of transport in greenhouse gas emissions, and the importance of integrating Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) with transport policy landscapes. This webinar explored the gap between these policies in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in Asia, highlighting the urgency for coherent and effective strategies to mitigate climate change.

Bertrand Goalou of the Asian Development Bank emphasized the crucial role of the transport sector in LMICs for economic and social development, noting its significant contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. He stressed the need for coherent climate action and ADB's commitment to supporting research that bridges knowledge gaps.

Holger Dalkmann, who is a senior adviser to the HVT program, highlighted the importance of collaboration and data-driven approaches to enhance climate action in the transport sector, focusing on Africa and Asia. He emphasized leveraging the NDCs to guide decarbonization efforts. Holger also promoted a couple of important upcoming events: UNESCAP Regional Commission Meeting (early November 2024) wherein an NDC policy brief being developed by HVT, UNESCAP, ADB, SLOCAT, and ATO  will be presented; Half-Day Transport Event at COP29 in Baku (November 18th): Hosted by the Climate Compatible Growth Program in partnership with HVT, ADB, and others, this event will showcase transport decarbonization projects and outputs.

Context and Challenges

The transport sector in Asia, particularly in LMICs, plays a crucial role in enabling economic and social development. However, it also significantly contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. Alvin Mejia emphasized that transport-related emissions reached 2.8 gigatons of CO2 in 2023, with a 6.6% increase compared to previous years, primarily driven by Asia. The sector's emissions in Asia now match those of Europe and North America combined, underlining the urgency for action.

Current State of NDCs and Transport Policies

Sudhir Gota, the Co-Team Lead of the Asian Transport Outlook (ATO), presented insights into the existing gap between NDCs and transport policies:

• Lack of Ambition: Only 25% of transport targets are included in NDCs, while 75% of targets are addressed outside of them. Moreover, only 10% of transport mitigation measures are found in NDCs, indicating a disconnect.
• Policy Improvement: Despite gaps, there has been progress. The number of measures included in NDCs has increased over time, signaling a gradual improvement in addressing transport and climate change issues.
• Decoupling Trends: There are signs of "absolute decoupling," meaning that transport CO2 emissions are growing slower than GDP in many high-income countries, but LMICs in Asia still face challenges in this regard.

Key Findings and Insights

• Long-term Ambitions and Targets: A lack of long-term transport decarbonization targets was identified, with only one country having a concrete transport sector target. This indicates a gap in aligning transport policies with climate goals.
• Need for Integrated Policies: The report highlighted the necessity of aligning NDCs with transport policy documents to ensure mutual reinforcement. For example, NDCs often focus on high-level targets, while transport policy documents provide more detailed and actionable measures.

Opportunities for Action

Several opportunities were identified to bridge the gap between NDCs and transport policy landscapes such as in the following intervention areas:

1. Public Transit Development: Both NDCs and transport policy documents emphasize public transit as a priority, with significant scope to enhance infrastructure and ridership.
2. Emobility: Emobility is a key pillar towards the transition away from CO2 intensive fleets. Asia has been a key region driving emobility globally (both in terms of supply and demand). However, measures such as continued (and increasing) fossil fuel subsidies remain high, which contradicts the push for electric mobility.
3. Freight Decarbonization: Freight transport contributes 60% of emissions, with urban freight accounting for a substantial share. Integrating freight strategies in NDCs and transport policies is a critical opportunity.

Adaptation and Resilience

Adaptation and resilience in the transport sector were identified as overlooked areas, with only 3% of measures in transport policy documents addressing adaptation. Considering that Asia faces 40-60% of the world's climate-related transport infrastructure damage, integrating adaptation measures into policies is crucial for long-term sustainability.

Recommendations for Moving Forward

The webinar concluded with recommendations for improving the alignment between NDCs and transport policies:

• Increasing Ambition: Encourage countries to set ambitious and coherent long-term transport targets in their NDCs.
• Enhancing Policy Coherence: Establish strong links between NDCs and transport policy documents to ensure they reinforce each other.
• Investment and Financing: Mobilize funding to support sustainable transport initiatives, leveraging international climate finance mechanisms.
• Developing Monitoring Tools: The Asian Transport Outlook will develop country-specific profiles and transport climate profiles to track progress and provide actionable insights.

Questions and Comments

The following depict the main insights during question-and-answer portion of the webinar:

Impact on GDP and Decarbonization: A question about the economic impact of shifting from ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) vehicles to electric vehicles was raised. It was noted that decarbonization will vary by country, with larger manufacturers needing a quicker transition.

Policy Assessment Consistency: When asked about using AI for policy analysis, the team emphasized their manual, thorough process with a 265-measure template, although they acknowledged AI’s potential in this work.

Transport Policy vs. NDC Alignment: Another question asked whether transport policies should drive NDCs or vice versa. The consensus was that both need to be aligned and mutually reinforcing for effective action.

Adaptation and Resilience: Concerns about adaptation measures led to a discussion on the lack of resilience strategies in policy documents, emphasizing the need for more attention to climate adaptation.

Monitoring Progress: On monitoring observatories, it was stated that ATO is tracking performance and data sources to support countries in monitoring transport and climate actions.

Conclusion

The need for coherent, ambitious, and integrated transport and climate policies is clear. The findings presented in the webinar underscore that LMICs in Asia must play a pivotal role in global decarbonization efforts, given their growing transport demand and emissions. By aligning NDCs with transport policies, countries can bridge existing gaps, create effective strategies for emission reductions, and move toward sustainable, low-carbon transport systems.

Maruxa Cardama of SLOCAT, during the closing, emphasized the urgency of aligning transport policies with NDCs to address climate goals in Asia. She highlighted that the next months are critical for enhancing transport action, with countries expected to submit updated NDCs by February 2025. Maruxa underscored the high stakes, noting that achieving a net-zero scenario requires a 25% reduction in transport emissions by 2030.

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